Durham: jobs tied to US demand
About 46,500 jobs held by Durham residents, 15% of all employed residents, exist because of demand from the United States (Ontario: 16%). Durham ranks 25 of 44 Ontario counties on this share. About 23% of what its industries sell to the United States paid US duty in June to August 2026 (Ontario: 25%).
How sure. These are estimates. The method behind them is checked against the exports Statistics Canada publishes for metropolitan areas, including Durham's.
Where those jobs are
The five industries that hold the most of Durham's jobs tied to US demand.
| Industry | Residents working in it, 2021 Census | Jobs tied to US demand, estimated | Share of the industry's US goods exports that paid US duty, Ontario-wide, percent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Administrative and support services | 14,600 | 3,928 | no goods exports counted |
| Finance and insurance | 23,590 | 3,482 | no goods exports counted |
| Computer systems design | 8,855 | 3,082 | no goods exports counted |
| Transportation | 10,775 | 2,900 | no goods exports counted |
| Media, software and telecommunications | 8,485 | 2,353 | no goods exports counted |
The residents are counted by the census; the jobs are estimates. The duty share is the industry's across Ontario in June to August 2026, at Canada-wide rates by product, not that of Durham's own firms. Where no goods exports are counted for an industry, as for most services, no share is shown.
The figures
| Measure | Durham | Ontario |
|---|---|---|
| Jobs tied to US demand, to the nearest hundred | 46,500 | 1,020,400 |
| Jobs tied to US demand, percent of employed residents | 14.5 | 15.7 |
| Share of US exports in goods that paid US duty, 2026-06 to 2026-08, percent | 23.2 | 25.3 |
| US duty paid, percent of US exports | 4.8 | 4.9 |
| Share of US exports on tariff lines a US instrument in force lists, percent | 31.1 | 34.8 |
| Share of US exports tariffed, not yet in the duty data, percent | 5.9 | 5.9 |
| US share of exports, percent | 69.7 | 70.5 |
Method and limits
What the measures are
Sources: Durham, estimated; Statistics Canada tables 12-10-0100-01, 98-10-0592-01; releases 2023-11-15, 2026-05-04; geography vintage 2021. Ontario, reported; Statistics Canada tables 12-10-0100-01, 98-10-0592-01; releases 2023-11-15, 2026-05-04; geography vintage 2021. Peer group: urban.
Jobs tied to US demand are Statistics Canada's "jobs due to foreign demand": jobs in an industry that exist because of exports by all industries. The shares of US exports are shares of their value, not of these jobs. US share of exports moves only with a county's mix of industries: every county inherits Ontario's US share within each industry. The US tariffs behind the shares, the industries most exposed, and Ontario's exports since 2022 are on US tariffs in force.
The area check
Part of Durham lies in the Oshawa, Toronto census metropolitan area(s). The exports the method allocates to a metropolitan area are compared with those Statistics Canada publishes for it (12-10-0138); the check allows half to twice the published figure.
- Oshawa CMA: allocated exports are 0.99 times the published figure: within the bound.
- Toronto CMA: allocated exports are 1.41 times the published figure: within the bound.
The check is of exports, not of the jobs figures above. Every area's result is on the methods page.
What the figures mean
- The year. These figures describe the structure of Ontario's exports in 2022, the latest year Statistics Canada publishes exports by industry for Ontario. They describe the economy before the United States tariffs of 2025 and 2026. (method)
- How a county figure is made. Ontario's exports of each industry (Statistics Canada 12-10-0100, detailed industries) are shared among counties by where that industry's workers live, counted in the 2021 Census by four-digit industry group (98-10-0592). Where the census groups are coarser than the export industries, the industries are pooled; retail and information are each pooled whole, and farms are one pool. Non-ferrous metals, whose exports are mostly refined gold, are shared by manufacturing employment instead. County figures assume each industry's workers in the county export as much per worker as that industry does across Ontario. Differences between counties come from which industries their residents work in, not from differences between firms. (method)
- Where workers are counted. Workers are counted where they live (2021 Census, place of residence), not where they work. (method)
- Estimated. Every county figure is an allocation, marked
estimated; no county export figure is published by Statistics Canada. (method) - The census week. The 2021 Census counted employment in May 2021, during Ontario's pandemic stay-at-home order, when fewer people were working than in 2022. Figures per employed resident therefore read higher than they would on 2022 employment, more so where accommodation, food and retail work was shut. No adjustment is made. Jobs tied to US demand divide a count of jobs by a count of employed residents. (method)
- Tariffs in force. The share on listed lines is the part of each industry's 2022 goods exports from Ontario to the United States (Statistics Canada, customs basis) that sits on tariff lines a US instrument in force lists, each line weighted by the United States' 2022 imports from Canada on it, applied to the industry's exports. The lines are matched to industries through the US Census Bureau's concordance of tariff lines to industries, and a line counts whole even where the tariff reaches only part of it, such as the metal content. Listed goods may still enter free under CUSMA. The share is not weighted by tariff rate; each instrument's rate is shown as its text reads. (method)
- Duties paid. The share in goods that paid US duty, and the duty paid, apply what the US Census Bureau records on imports from Canada, product by product, over 2026-06 to 2026-08, to each industry's 2022 exports: Canada-wide rates by product, not the county's own firms' CUSMA claims. (method)
- Tariffed, not yet in the duty data. Goods on lines first tariffed by an instrument that took effect after the first month of the duty data are counted separately; no rate is applied to them. The duty data covers them for only part of its months. (method)
Sources and notices
Published 2026-10-14. Figures rest on Ontario's exports in 2022; US duties paid, 2026-06 to 2026-08; US tariffs as of 2026-10-14.
Adapted from Statistics Canada, table 12-10-0100-01, Value added in exports, by industry, provincial and territorial (2022); table 98-10-0592-01, Class of worker by industry groups, labour force status, age and gender, Canada, provinces and territories and census divisions (2021 Census); the Canadian International Merchandise Trade Database, domestic exports to the United States by product (2022); table 12-10-0138-01, Trade in goods by exporter characteristics, by industry of establishment and census metropolitan area (2021 and 2022); table 98-10-0448-01, Industry groups by class of worker including job permanency, labour force status, age and gender, Canada, provinces and territories, census metropolitan areas and census agglomerations with parts (2021 Census). This does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada of this product. The data are used under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
This product uses the Census Bureau Data API but is not endorsed or certified by the Census Bureau. US imports from Canada by tariff line, and the duties recorded on them, are from the US Census Bureau's international trade data.
Pendalogue is independent. It is not affiliated with Statistics Canada, the Government of Canada or the US Census Bureau, and uses no logo or symbol of theirs.