How the figures are calculated
Statistics Canada publishes, for Ontario as a whole, how many jobs in each industry exist because of demand from the United States, and how much each industry exports. It does not publish these for counties. This page shows how the site turns the provincial figures into county figures, step by step, with a worked example, and then how the result is checked. Each section ends with the entries of the project's decision log behind it (D-NNNN are decisions, M-NNNN mistakes found and fixed). The checks below were run on 2026-10-14, on the data every page of this site was built from.
In three steps
- Start from Ontario, industry by industry. For each industry, Statistics Canada's 2022 figures for Ontario (12-10-0100): the jobs that exist because of US demand, the exports to the United States, and the exports to all countries.
- Share each industry among the counties by where its workers live. A county gets the part of each Ontario figure that matches its part of the industry's workers, counted by the 2021 Census where they live (98-10-0592).
- Add up the industries to get the county's total, and divide by the county's employed residents, or by its exports, to get a share.
Every county figure is therefore an estimate: it assumes a county's workers in an industry are as tied to US demand as that industry's workers across Ontario. Counties differ because their residents work in different industries, not because their firms differ (D-0019, D-0123, D-0154).
Each measure
Jobs tied to US demand
For each industry:
county's jobs tied to US demand = Ontario's jobs tied to US demand in the industry × (county's residents working in the industry ÷ Ontario's residents working in it)
The county's total is the sum over its industries. Ontario's figure is Statistics Canada's "jobs due to foreign demand" for the United States: jobs in an industry that exist because of exports by all industries (D-0185).
Jobs share, the ranking measure
jobs share = county's jobs tied to US demand ÷ county's employed residents, as a percent
Share of US exports that paid US duty, and the other tariff shares
These are worked out in three layers, each an average of the one below:
- Each product. From the US Census Bureau's records of imports from Canada: the share of the product's value that paid duty (dutiable value ÷ customs value) over 2026-06 to 2026-08; the duty itself (calculated duty ÷ customs value); and the share on tariff lines a US instrument in force lists (value on listed lines ÷ all value, 2022 imports).
- Each industry. The average of its products' shares, each product weighted by Ontario's 2022 exports of it to the United States. Products are matched to industries through the US Census Bureau's concordance.
- Each county. The average of its industries' shares, each industry weighted by the county's estimated US exports in it.
county's share = sum over its industries of (industry's share × county's US exports in the industry) ÷ county's US exports
The industry's share is Ontario-wide, at Canada-wide rates by product, so a county's share moves only with its mix of industries (D-0123, D-0150, D-0157, D-0158, D-0183).
US share of exports
US share of exports = county's estimated exports to the United States ÷ its estimated exports to all countries, as a percent
Every county inherits Ontario's US share within each industry, so this too moves only with the county's mix of industries (D-0019, D-0136).
A worked example: Oxford
Oxford ranks first. Its industry with the most jobs tied to US demand is motor vehicle parts.
- Across Ontario, 48,671 jobs in motor vehicle parts exist because of US demand, and the 2021 Census counted 58,990 residents working in the industry.
- 2,130 of them live in Oxford.
- So Oxford gets about 1,757 of the industry's jobs tied to US demand. Census counts are rounded, so the arithmetic matches to within a few jobs.
Doing the same for every industry and adding up gives about 12,600 jobs. Divided by Oxford's employed residents, that is 22.3% of them, the highest share of any ranked county.
On duty: across Ontario, 15.9% of motor vehicle parts' US goods exports paid duty, and 97.4% of automobiles and heavy trucks' US goods exports paid duty. Averaged over all of Oxford's industries, each weighted by the county's US exports in it, 51.7% of the value of Oxford's US exports was in goods that paid duty.
The ranking
Counties are ranked on the jobs share. The share is rounded to one decimal before ranking, and where two counties print the same share the one with more jobs tied to US demand ranks first, so that no rank turns on a difference smaller than anything a page prints. Summaries give the count to the nearest hundred and shares to the whole percent; tables give shares to one decimal (D-0185, D-0186, D-0187).
No estimated dollar figure is printed for a county. Every county gets Ontario's exports per worker in each industry, so a county's dollar level is only its mix of industries priced at Ontario's averages. The rural check below finds the method places 2.03 times the published share of exports in rural and small-town Ontario, and 22 of the 44 ranked counties lie outside every metropolitan area, where no published figure checks a county on its own. Shares and ranks hold up under those limits better than levels do. The dollar figures further down this page are of another kind: Statistics Canada's published exports, set beside the allocation they test. Until this ranking, counties were ranked by US exports per employed resident (D-0123); that figure is still computed and is no longer shown (D-0189).
The table of industries on a county page lists the five pools of industries with the most of the county's jobs tied to US demand. Its duty share is the pool's across Ontario over 2026-06 to 2026-08, its industries weighted by their goods exports (D-0157, D-0193). A pool with no goods exports counted, as most services are, shows none.
What the figures assume
The statements every county page carries under "Method and limits", in full.
The year
These figures describe the structure of Ontario's exports in 2022, the latest year Statistics Canada publishes exports by industry for Ontario. They describe the economy before the United States tariffs of 2025 and 2026. (D-0120)
How a county figure is made
Ontario's exports of each industry (Statistics Canada 12-10-0100, detailed industries) are shared among counties by where that industry's workers live, counted in the 2021 Census by four-digit industry group (98-10-0592). Where the census groups are coarser than the export industries, the industries are pooled; retail and information are each pooled whole, and farms are one pool. Non-ferrous metals, whose exports are mostly refined gold, are shared by manufacturing employment instead. County figures assume each industry's workers in the county export as much per worker as that industry does across Ontario. Differences between counties come from which industries their residents work in, not from differences between firms. (D-0123, D-0154, D-0155)
Where workers are counted
Workers are counted where they live (2021 Census, place of residence), not where they work. (D-0124)
Estimated
Every county figure is an allocation, marked estimated; no county export figure is published by Statistics Canada. (D-0133)
The census week
The 2021 Census counted employment in May 2021, during Ontario's pandemic stay-at-home order, when fewer people were working than in 2022. Figures per employed resident therefore read higher than they would on 2022 employment, more so where accommodation, food and retail work was shut. No adjustment is made. Jobs tied to US demand divide a count of jobs by a count of employed residents. (D-0104, D-0148)
Tariffs in force
The share on listed lines is the part of each industry's 2022 goods exports from Ontario to the United States (Statistics Canada, customs basis) that sits on tariff lines a US instrument in force lists, each line weighted by the United States' 2022 imports from Canada on it, applied to the industry's exports. The lines are matched to industries through the US Census Bureau's concordance of tariff lines to industries, and a line counts whole even where the tariff reaches only part of it, such as the metal content. Listed goods may still enter free under CUSMA. The share is not weighted by tariff rate; each instrument's rate is shown as its text reads. (D-0123, D-0150)
Duties paid
The share in goods that paid US duty, and the duty paid, apply what the US Census Bureau records on imports from Canada, product by product, over 2026-06 to 2026-08, to each industry's 2022 exports: Canada-wide rates by product, not the county's own firms' CUSMA claims. (D-0157, D-0158)
Tariffed, not yet in the duty data
Goods on lines first tariffed by an instrument that took effect after the first month of the duty data are counted separately; no rate is applied to them. The duty data covers them for only part of its months. (D-0158, D-0183)
Peer groups
A county's peers are the counties in its urbanity class: urban, mixed or rural, set by the share of its 2021 census population living outside population centres. Size is not part of the peer key. The 2021 Census did not fully enumerate the Six Nations reserve, which lies in Brant and Haldimand-Norfolk; both keep the class Statistics Canada's counts give them, and both pages say that counting those residents could change it (D-0105, D-0118).
How the method is checked
No county export figure is published, so a county's own figure cannot be checked. The method can: the same steps are run for each census metropolitan area (CMA) and the result compared with the exports Statistics Canada publishes for CMAs (12-10-0138). Two tests apply. Across the CMAs, allocated and published exports must rank in nearly the same order (a rank correlation of at least the required value below). And each CMA's allocation must fall within half to twice its published figure; a county with part of its population in a CMA that fails is not ranked (D-0019, D-0121, D-0125, D-0127).
- 2022 (gating year): rank correlation over 16 CMAs, 0.935, against a required 0.8: pass. CMAs outside half to twice the published figure: 4. Counties ranked 44, withheld 5; counties containing part of a CMA 27, outside every CMA 22. For the rural check's municipal allocation, exports carried by municipal rows with a published employment value: 319.00 of 319.11 billion dollars (0.036 percent short, from suppressed rows).
- 2021 (reported): rank correlation over 16 CMAs, 0.944, against a required 0.8: pass. CMAs outside half to twice the published figure: 4. Counties ranked 45, withheld 4; counties containing part of a CMA 27, outside every CMA 22. For the rural check's municipal allocation, exports carried by municipal rows with a published employment value: 270.17 of 270.27 billion dollars (0.038 percent short, from suppressed rows).
Each CMA
Exports to all countries, all industries, billions of dollars. A CMA's allocation shares each pool of industries by the CMA's employed residents in the pool's four-digit industry groups (98-10-0448), as the county figures are shared (D-0154, D-0155). Ottawa-Gatineau is compared whole; its Quebec part is allocated from Quebec's exports by the same rule (D-0127).
2022
| CMA | Published | Allocated | Ratio | Within half to twice |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto | 95.21 | 134.05 | 1.41 | yes |
| Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo | 17.23 | 21.09 | 1.22 | yes |
| Windsor | 14.84 | 14.76 | 0.99 | yes |
| Hamilton | 11.78 | 19.10 | 1.62 | yes |
| Ottawa-Gatineau | 11.14 | 17.03 | 1.53 | yes |
| St. Catharines-Niagara | 8.18 | 9.02 | 1.10 | yes |
| Oshawa | 7.91 | 7.83 | 0.99 | yes |
| London | 7.00 | 12.49 | 1.78 | yes |
| Guelph | 6.29 | 6.46 | 1.03 | yes |
| Greater Sudbury | 4.75 | 1.91 | 0.40 | no |
| Brantford | 3.58 | 4.87 | 1.36 | yes |
| Kingston | 2.07 | 3.15 | 1.52 | yes |
| Belleville - Quinte West | 1.93 | 2.32 | 1.20 | yes |
| Barrie | 0.86 | 6.10 | 7.10 | no |
| Peterborough | 0.70 | 1.89 | 2.70 | no |
| Thunder Bay | 0.56 | 1.45 | 2.60 | no |
2021
| CMA | Published | Allocated | Ratio | Within half to twice |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto | 85.68 | 113.48 | 1.32 | yes |
| Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo | 18.70 | 17.74 | 0.95 | yes |
| Windsor | 11.70 | 12.17 | 1.04 | yes |
| Ottawa-Gatineau | 11.50 | 14.69 | 1.28 | yes |
| Hamilton | 10.34 | 16.27 | 1.57 | yes |
| London | 7.15 | 10.86 | 1.52 | yes |
| St. Catharines-Niagara | 6.54 | 7.49 | 1.15 | yes |
| Guelph | 4.73 | 5.41 | 1.15 | yes |
| Brantford | 2.64 | 4.10 | 1.55 | yes |
| Oshawa | 2.24 | 6.61 | 2.96 | no |
| Belleville - Quinte West | 1.86 | 1.96 | 1.05 | yes |
| Kingston | 1.46 | 2.80 | 1.92 | yes |
| Greater Sudbury | 1.00 | 1.65 | 1.66 | yes |
| Barrie | 0.64 | 5.08 | 8.00 | no |
| Peterborough | 0.59 | 1.57 | 2.64 | no |
| Thunder Bay | 0.57 | 1.22 | 2.15 | no |
Counties outside every metropolitan area
No published figure reaches a county that contains no part of a CMA. Its own figure is not checked; the method is checked on the metropolitan areas, above, and on Ontario's rural and small-town areas taken together, below (D-0127, D-0129).
The rural check
The share of Ontario's exports in rural and small-town areas (every municipality outside a CMA and a CA), as the method allocates it and as Statistics Canada publishes it (12-10-0180, goods exports linked to Business Register establishments), percent. The two measure different things: the published figure places exports where the exporting establishment is registered, the allocation where the industry's workers live. Shares, not dollars, are compared for that reason (D-0138). No threshold is set; the check is reported, not a gate (D-0144).
This check allocates by the eighteen industry groups of 98-10-0456 at municipal grain, not by the county figures' four-digit groups, which the census publishes for counties only (D-0162). The allocation is shown twice: with workers where they live, as the county figures count them, and with workers moved to where they work along the 2021 Census commuting flows (98-10-0459), which is closer to how the published figure counts (D-0140, D-0145). The first ratio is the county figures' own method: pools of industries shared by employed residents in four-digit industry groups, rural and small town taken as Ontario less its CMAs and CAs in 98-10-0448 (D-0165).
| Group (NAICS) | Rural share, county method | Rural share, groups by residence | Rural share, groups by place of work | Rural share, published | Ratio, county method | Ratio, groups by residence | Ratio, groups by place of work |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| total | 10.0 | 9.9 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.03 | 2.00 | 1.61 |
| 31-33 | 10.4 | 10.3 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 2.16 | 2.16 | 1.68 |
| 41 | 8.3 | 7.7 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 1.68 | 1.56 | 1.24 |
| 52-53-55 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 5.48 | 4.90 | 4.20 |
| 48-49 | not available | 8.0 | 6.6 | 2.5 | not available | 3.22 | 2.67 |
| 21 | 27.1 | 29.8 | 26.9 | 19.7 | 1.38 | 1.51 | 1.37 |
| 11 | 43.5 | 42.9 | 37.4 | 16.0 | 2.72 | 2.68 | 2.34 |
| 54 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 2.66 | 3.27 | 2.93 |
| 22 | 25.8 | 22.7 | 19.3 | 9.1 | 2.82 | 2.49 | 2.12 |
| 23 | 14.8 | 14.8 | 13.2 | 3.5 | 4.26 | 4.26 | 3.80 |
| 44-45 | not available | 10.1 | 8.4 | 4.8 | not available | 2.09 | 1.72 |
| 56 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 1.32 | 1.33 | 1.18 |
| 81 | 11.1 | 11.0 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 2.36 | 2.33 | 1.94 |
| 51 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 0.4 | 11.36 | 10.63 | 9.11 |
| 91 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 8.1 | 0.3 | 31.04 | 36.87 | 31.57 |
| 62 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 8.6 | 0.4 | 28.19 | 28.17 | 23.74 |
| 61 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 0.2 | 50.08 | 49.84 | 42.99 |
| 71 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 8.0 | 5.9 | 1.73 | 1.67 | 1.35 |
| 72 | 12.5 | 8.8 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 3.08 | 2.17 | 1.82 |
US share of exports by industry group
Every county inherits Ontario's US share within each pool of industries, and the pools sit inside these groups. This sets the group's share beside Canada's from the same table (12-10-0100, domestic exports) and Canada's from customs trade by industry (12-10-0176, goods industries only; its notes do not say whether its exports are domestic or total), percent. Reported, not a gate (D-0019, D-0136).
| Group (NAICS) | Ontario, 12-10-0100 | Canada, 12-10-0100 | Canada, 12-10-0176 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31-33 | 76.6 | 76.4 | 80.4 |
| 54 | 67.5 | 65.9 | not covered |
| 41 | 76.2 | 73.6 | 61.1 |
| 48-49 | 63.0 | 65.0 | not covered |
| 51 | 76.2 | 74.4 | not covered |
| 52-53-55 | 53.5 | 52.2 | not covered |
| 56 | 68.6 | 69.2 | not covered |
| 11 | 52.6 | 35.6 | 34.7 |
| 72 | 37.3 | 37.2 | not covered |
| 22 | 96.3 | 97.8 | 100.0 |
| 21 | 71.4 | 79.5 | 74.3 |
| 91 | 42.9 | 50.3 | not covered |
| 71 | 61.9 | 60.4 | not covered |
| 61 | 5.9 | 6.1 | not covered |
| 62 | 60.3 | 61.4 | not covered |
| 44-45 | 59.0 | 58.0 | not covered |
| 81 | 14.8 | 20.4 | not covered |
| 23 | 64.4 | 64.5 | not covered |
The US tariffs
The tariffs are read from each US instrument's own text in the Federal Register and the Harmonized Tariff Schedule, not from summaries. Each instrument's status (in force, announced, ended) is the status on the regime's as-of date, 2026-10-14. Tariff lines are matched to industries through the US Census Bureau's concordance, and each line is weighted by the United States' imports from Canada on it. Before the site is published, every Federal Register document since then is listed and read again, and publication is refused if the regime was read more than fourteen days before, or if any instrument's status has changed since (D-0122, D-0132, D-0139, D-0150, D-0168, D-0176, M-0045, M-0052, M-0066).
Ontario since 2022
The panel of Ontario's exports to the United States since 2022 is Ontario-wide, from Statistics Canada's customs-basis trade tables; it is not allocated to counties (D-0128, D-0134).
How a page is checked before it is published
- The number check. Every number on a page is printed through a recorded lookup of a checked row, and is read again from the data after the page is written; a page with any other number, or without the statements above, is refused (D-0025, D-0135, D-0148).
- The web page check. Each web page carries exactly the numbers of the checked page it is made from, in the same order (D-0168, D-0174).
- The notices check. Every page carries both publishers' notices and the dates its figures rest on (D-0168, D-0175, D-0199).
- The estimated-dollar check. No page prints an estimated dollar figure for a county: a page that looks one up, or carries the words for one, is refused (D-0189, D-0192).
- The tariff re-read. The US tariff regime is re-read no more than fourteen days before publication, and no instrument's status has changed since (D-0168, D-0176).
- The author's reading. Jeff Ahmadi reads the article, this page, the ranking, the tariffs page, and each county page before it is sent to anyone (D-0168).
- The site carries no script, tracker, cookie or analytics (D-0174).
Sources and notices
Published 2026-10-14. Figures rest on Ontario's exports in 2022; US duties paid, 2026-06 to 2026-08; US tariffs as of 2026-10-14.
Adapted from Statistics Canada, table 12-10-0100-01, Value added in exports, by industry, provincial and territorial (2022); table 98-10-0592-01, Class of worker by industry groups, labour force status, age and gender, Canada, provinces and territories and census divisions (2021 Census); the Canadian International Merchandise Trade Database, domestic exports to the United States by product (2022); table 12-10-0138-01, Trade in goods by exporter characteristics, by industry of establishment and census metropolitan area (2021 and 2022); table 98-10-0448-01, Industry groups by class of worker including job permanency, labour force status, age and gender, Canada, provinces and territories, census metropolitan areas and census agglomerations with parts (2021 Census); table 12-10-0180-01, Rural Canada Trade Profiles, export of goods, number of exporting establishments and trade value, by industry and location indicator (2022); table 98-10-0456-01, Place of work status by industry sectors, occupation broad category and gender, census divisions and census subdivisions (2021 Census); table 98-10-0459-01, Commuting flow from geography of residence to geography of work by gender, census subdivisions (2021 Census); table 12-10-0176-01, Canadian international merchandise trade by industry for all countries, monthly (2022). This does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada of this product. The data are used under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
This product uses the Census Bureau Data API but is not endorsed or certified by the Census Bureau. US imports from Canada by tariff line, and the duties recorded on them, are from the US Census Bureau's international trade data.
Pendalogue is independent. It is not affiliated with Statistics Canada, the Government of Canada or the US Census Bureau, and uses no logo or symbol of theirs.