Thunder Bay: jobs tied to US demand

The area check

Part of Thunder Bay lies in the Thunder Bay census metropolitan area(s). The exports the method allocates to a metropolitan area are compared with those Statistics Canada publishes for it (12-10-0138); the check allows half to twice the published figure.

• Thunder Bay CMA: allocated exports are 2.60 times the published figure: outside the bound.

Every area's result is on the methods page.

What the figures mean

• The year. These figures describe the structure of Ontario's exports in 2022, the latest year Statistics Canada publishes exports by industry for Ontario. They describe the economy before the United States tariffs of 2025 and 2026. (method)
• How a county figure is made. Ontario's exports of each industry (Statistics Canada 12-10-0100, detailed industries) are shared among counties by where that industry's workers live, counted in the 2021 Census by four-digit industry group (98-10-0592). Where the census groups are coarser than the export industries, the industries are pooled; retail and information are each pooled whole, and farms are one pool. Non-ferrous metals, whose exports are mostly refined gold, are shared by manufacturing employment instead. County figures assume each industry's workers in the county export as much per worker as that industry does across Ontario. Differences between counties come from which industries their residents work in, not from differences between firms. (method)
• Where workers are counted. Workers are counted where they live (2021 Census, place of residence), not where they work. (method)
• Estimated. Every county figure is an allocation, marked estimated; no county export figure is published by Statistics Canada. (method)
• The census week. The 2021 Census counted employment in May 2021, during Ontario's pandemic stay-at-home order, when fewer people were working than in 2022. Figures per employed resident therefore read higher than they would on 2022 employment, more so where accommodation, food and retail work was shut. No adjustment is made. Jobs tied to US demand divide a count of jobs by a count of employed residents. (method)
• Tariffs in force. The share on listed lines is the part of each industry's 2022 goods exports from Ontario to the United States (Statistics Canada, customs basis) that sits on tariff lines a US instrument in force lists, each line weighted by the United States' 2022 imports from Canada on it, applied to the industry's exports. The lines are matched to industries through the US Census Bureau's concordance of tariff lines to industries, and a line counts whole even where the tariff reaches only part of it, such as the metal content. Listed goods may still enter free under CUSMA. The share is not weighted by tariff rate; each instrument's rate is shown as its text reads. (method)
• Duties paid. The share in goods that paid US duty, and the duty paid, apply what the US Census Bureau records on imports from Canada, product by product, over 2026-06 to 2026-08, to each industry's 2022 exports: Canada-wide rates by product, not the county's own firms' CUSMA claims. (method)
• Tariffed, not yet in the duty data. Goods on lines first tariffed by an instrument that took effect after the first month of the duty data are counted separately; no rate is applied to them. The duty data covers them for only part of its months. (method)